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What Did We Say During Oct To Dec '07: Sensex 18000 To 21000 AURUM: Oct '07 Pg. 1: ...So to conclude, though the liquidity has pushed the valuations ahead of fundamentals, US sub-prime concerns & political uncertainty may lead to huge volatility in the markets for next few months. To switch out gradually from Equity to Debt funds temporarily may prove wise. AURUM: Nov '07 Pg. 4: Dizzy Heights - Action Plan at 20000 The word 'risk' seems to have evaporated somewhere in thin air. In Aug '07 when the markets were in correction phase, all sorts of negative news made lot of sense to all - subprime, political uncertainties, crude oil, falling dollar, etc. The sentiment was very negative. All the above mentioned negatives are very much still there. Subprime problems don't seem to be getting over atleast in the near future. Crude oil has touched life high of $96. Dollar continues to fall. What has changed is only 'sentiments' - and that too just because we are experiencing a sharp rally over last 2 months. If India's good corporate results & roaring GDP figures is the reason for the last 6000 point rally in 2 months, I think since last 4 years India's results & GDP numbers are buoyant quarter-on-quarter. So again, nothing has changed in last 2 months, its only sentiments due to rising markets because of massive liquidity. AURUM: Dec '07 Pg. 1: Anxiety to be in the stock market now seems to be at its peak. Investors want to buy into Equity Mutual Funds and midcap stocks which are rallying since last few weeks. Investors are ready to take on short term correction promising that they are long term investors. Good that Indian investor is now much more brave & thinking long term. I hope if & when markets correct, these investors continue to invest more at lower prices. But normally what happens is different. In my 11 years of experience when the markets correct, 80% of investors don’t buy & another 10% investors actually offload their equity investments. So my experience says 90% investors are momentum investors who follow market trends & fall prey to Greed-Panic syndrome. Only 10% investors actually are long-term investors who invest heavily only when risk-return ratio is favourable and show immense patience & restrict themselves from buying when markets are heated up. |
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